China Initiative
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Foreign Affairs
After Xi (co-authored by Tyler Jost)
In a piece co-authored for Foreign Affairs, Tyler Jost warns that China’s looming post–Xi Jinping succession could trigger internal power struggles, destabilize the regime, and reshape the country’s foreign and domestic policies.
Tyler Jost & Daniel Mattingly: Xi Jinping's Successor and the Future of China (interview with Tyler Jost)
Tyler Jost joined the Foreign Affairs Interview podcast to discuss Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power, the risks of political succession in China, and how struggles over Xi’s legacy could shape the country’s future and global influence.
China-Russia partnership is less than meets the eye (written by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein writes in Asia Times that while China and Russia are deepening ties, Beijing has resisted a full military alliance, showing restraint to avoid a new cold war.
Russia is helping prepare China to attack Taiwan, documents suggest (comments by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein told The Washington Post that China views airborne assaults as “absolutely essential” for any invasion of Taiwan and sees Russian expertise as especially valuable after studying D-Day’s reliance on such tactics.
Trump’s Opportunity To Re-Engage Kim Jong Un (written by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein writes in Real Clear Defense that while a Beijing parade with Xi, Putin, and Kim Jong-un raises concern, China’s ties with Russia and North Korea remain complex.
China says electromagnetic catapult launched fighters from new aircraft carrier (comments by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein told Stars and Stripes that China’s electromagnetic launch of stealth fighters marks an impressive naval advance but said the true military value of carriers remains questionable given their vulnerability to submarines, missiles and drones.
China and Russia conduct joint sub patrols — should America worry? (comments by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein told Defense News that China and Russia’s joint submarine patrol was a small-scale show of deterrence consistent with past cooperation, but not yet evidence of a deep military alliance.
India’s thaw in relations with China is nothing to fear (written by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein writes in The Hill that U.S. interests would be better served by supporting a China-India rapprochement rather than viewing it as a zero-sum loss, since cooperation between the two Asian powers could ease tensions, boost trade and stabilize the global order.
Trump’s second-term China policies are confusing ‘hawks’ — and Beijing (comments by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein told the Washington Examiner that Trump’s pragmatic approach to China, including resisting hard-line hawks and praising Xi, reflects the costly reality of U.S.-China interdependence.
Are China’s New Underwater Drones the Future of Naval Warfare? (comments by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein comments for Domino Theory, "We’re talking about, if not a revolution in naval warfare, then something approximating one."
China's catastrophic South China Sea crash shows how dangerous high-risk moves at sea can be (comments by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein told Business Insider that China’s risky confrontations in the South China Sea have increased over the past decade as Beijing flaunts its growing maritime and aerial power.
Washington Shouldn’t Fear Russia and China Seeking Influence in Afghanistan (co-authored by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein and Ella Corbett write in RealClearWorld that Washington should not view Russia’s and China’s growing ties with Afghanistan as a significant threat and should instead focus on humanitarian engagement.
Symposium: Why was Japan the only nuclear holocaust in 80 yrs? (comments by Lyle Goldstein and Stephen Kinzer)
Watson experts Lyle Goldstein and Stephen Kinzer reflect on the legacy of nuclear weapons 80 years after Hiroshima, weighing in on whether deterrence is the true outcome of the atomic age.
Is it possible to “win” a nuclear war? (comments by Lyle Goldstein)
In Vox, Lyle Goldstein says Chinese scholars are now openly discussing limited nuclear war, framing it as a response to similar conversations in the United States.
Lurching Toward Détente? (written by Lyle Goldstein)
In an article for the U.S. Naval Institute, Lyle Goldstein argues the United States should renew naval cooperation with Russia to promote maritime stability, strategic balance and humanitarian readiness despite ongoing tensions over Ukraine.
Is Trump pulling back from Taiwan? (written by Lyle Goldstein)
In UnHerd, Lyle Goldstein argues that the U.S. is beginning a significant and necessary shift in its Taiwan policy—publicly reining in Taipei to reduce the risk of war with China and prioritize broader strategic interests under an “America First” framework.
Trump takes step back from Philippines in South China Sea (written by Lyle Goldstein)
In Asia Times, Lyle Goldstein writes that former President Trump’s approach to the Philippines signals a shift toward defusing U.S.-China tensions by prioritizing trade and counterterrorism over military alliances and confrontation.
In an interview with PBS NewsHour, Lyle Goldstein discussed tariffs and the Trump administration’s overall approach to Asia.
AUKUS is a flawed but sensible way to burden-share in the Pacific (written by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein argues in Stars and Stripes that despite flaws and risks, the U.S. should stay in AUKUS to strengthen undersea warfare and share Pacific defense burdens against China.
What Is Trump’s “New Realism” in Foreign Policy? (written by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein writes in The National Interest that Trump’s new foreign policy embraces spheres of influence over interventionism, which could reduce great power conflict if managed carefully.
American bombs in Iran also reverberate in China and North Korea (comments by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein comments for Associated Press, “President Lai’s series of recent speeches appear almost designed to set up a new cross-strait crisis, perhaps in the hopes of building more support in Washington and elsewhere around the Pacific."
Why America’s East Asian Allies Skipped the NATO Summit (written by Lyle Goldstein)
In Real Clear Defense, Lyle Goldstein writes that Asia-Pacific allies skipping the NATO summit signals a rational shift away from U.S. defense demands and may help rebalance regional security.
Will the US strikes on Iran push China and North Korea to ramp up their nuclear arms programmes? (comments by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein comments for Asia Times, "I am more concerned that this further erodes norms both with respect to attacking nuclear infrastructure as well as encouraging the dangerous practice of preventive war in general."
Why China’s sitting on the Iran war sidelines (written by Lyle Goldstein)
In Asia Times, Lyle Goldstein writes that while China may benefit geopolitically from U.S. entanglement in the Middle East, Beijing continues to exercise military restraint and prioritize diplomacy in the region.
Political assassination shocks US ahead of Trump military parade set for Washington (comments by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein comments for South China Morning Post, "While it will have some flashy elements, including heavy armor and attack helicopters, these elements are actually not associated with the future development of the force."
What does China’s military gain from operating 2 aircraft carriers in second island chain? (comment by Lyle Goldstein)
In an interview with the South China Morning Post, Lyle Goldstein said China’s dual-carrier drills in the western Pacific serve both as preparation for a potential conflict over Taiwan and as a show of force aimed at deterring U.S. and Japanese intervention.
In a piece for UnHerd, Lyle Goldstein writes that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue may escalate tensions with China by downplaying diplomacy and overstating U.S. military deterrence in East Asia.
Lyle Goldstein tells USA Today that while military parades can honor sacrifice and boost national pride, they also often signal insecurity and are more typical of authoritarian regimes seeking to showcase power.
The US must make hard choices on national security (written by Lyle Goldstein)
In Nikkei Asia, Lyle Goldstein argues the U.S. must make tough national security choices as it remains globally overextended despite pledges to prioritize the Indo-Pacific.
Reverse Kissinger? No, Double Kissinger (written by Lyle Goldstein)
In The National Interest, Lyle Goldstein argues the U.S. should pursue a "double Kissinger" strategy by easing tensions with both China and Russia, rather than prioritizing deterrence of one over the other.
How China’s military might use anti-AI tactics on the battlefields of the future (comments by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein told the South China Morning Post that China’s PLA is rapidly developing anti-AI tactics while integrating traditional and modern combat methods, spurred by lessons from the Ukraine war and U.S. warnings over Taiwan.
It’s Time for Trump and Xi to Meet (co-authored by Lyle Goldstein)
In a TIME article, co-author Lyle Goldstein argues the U.S.-China tariff pause offers a key chance for Trump and Xi to ease tensions and avoid a new Cold War through bold diplomacy.
US should look before it leaps into South China Sea (written by Lyle Goldstein)
In Asia Times, Lyle Goldstein warns that deepening U.S.-Philippines military ties amid rising tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea could escalate conflict, urging Washington to adopt a more cautious, diplomacy-focused approach.
Why Trump probably can’t pull off a ‘reverse Nixon’ (written by Lyle Goldstein)
In Responsible Statecraft, Lyle Goldstein argues that a Trump-led “reverse Nixon” strategy to split Russia and China is unlikely to succeed due to their deepening strategic, economic, and military ties.
Soulmates: Xi and Putin (interview with Lyle Goldstein)
In an interview with the Face-Off: The U.S. vs China podcast, Lyle Goldstein discusses the evolving Russia-China relationship and how their alignment challenges the U.S. in a shifting global order.
The US and China must avert a nuclear standoff (written by Lyle Goldstein)
In this article, Lyle Goldstein asserts that the U.S. and China should agree to an annual three-day bilateral summit to defuse tensions and avoid a nuclear confrontation between the two nations.
Trump’s Pick for Key Pentagon Role Faces Off With GOP Hawks (comments by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein comments for Foreign Policy, “Things are changing, and there’s an earnest debate in the Republican Party.”
What Will South Korea’s Post-Yoon Foreign Policy Look Like? (written by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein writes in The Diplomat that the downfall of South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has triggered a reassessment of his foreign policy, with Seoul likely shifting toward moderation to ease regional tensions.
Why Trump needs to engage North Korea to lower tensions (interview with Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein told NK News that Trump-Kim engagement 2.0 could help deescalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula following Trump’s inauguration.