China Initiative
In the News
Responsible Statecraft
War has significantly altered major Trump meeting with Xi (written by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein wrote in Responsible Statecraft that the U.S.-Iran war could complicate U.S.-China relations but also create an opportunity for cooperation to stabilize the global economy and reduce tensions.
Taiwan’s KMT offers US an off-ramp from war with China (written by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein writes in Asia Times that Taiwan's opposition-led outreach to Beijing signals a diplomatic path to easing cross-strait tensions and reducing the risk of U.S.-China conflict.
Trump’s Hormuz blockade unlikely to draw China into Iran war (comments by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein told the Washington Examiner that China views the Iran war as economically and diplomatically disruptive but remains insulated enough to avoid deeper involvement.
Time for a ‘Fourth Communique’ To Stabilize U.S.-China Relations (written by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein argues in RealClearWorld that the U.S. and China should pursue a fourth communiqué to reduce tensions and avoid conflict over Taiwan.
Iran war: is the US shifting away from its strategy of precision strikes? (interview with Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein was interviewed by the South China Morning Post about the Iran war and the lessons it holds for protecting energy infrastructure.
Understanding China’s Amphibious Warfare: The Yijiangshan Case Study (written by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein writes for U.S. Naval Institute that China’s study of the 1955 Yijiangshan amphibious assault suggests a conflict over Taiwan could be more dangerous and escalate more quickly than many U.S. planners assume.
The delayed US-China Summit is another cost of the Iran War (op-ed by Lyle Goldstein)
In this op-ed, Lyle Goldstein argued that the Iran War is distracting the U.S. from the most pressing issue facing the global order: U.S.-Chinese relations.
The Battle of Gallipoli's sobering lessons for the Strait of Hormuz (article by Lyle Goldstein)
In this article, Lyle Goldstein discussed the 1915 Battle of Gallipoli as an example of the kinds of problems that can arise in a battle for control over a constricted waterway like the Strait of Hormuz.
Why Donald Trump's war could play into China's hands (op-ed by Lyle Goldstein)
In this op-ed, Lyle Goldstein argued that problems in the Persian Gulf are likely to give further impetus to China-Russia energy cooperation in the Arctic.
'China could attack South Korea in a contingency' – warning drawn from Iran's strike on US bases (commentary by Lyle Goldstein)
This article on the possibility of China attacking U.S. bases in Korea featured commentary from Lyle Goldstein.
How Iran’s strikes on US bases could offer a preview for the Asia-Pacific (commentary by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein offered commentary in this article on how China might target U.S. military assets in Asian countries in the event of a Taiwan Straight conflict.
Stability comes first: Chinese defence chief signals Beijing’s strategic caution (commentary by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein offered commentary in this article about Chinese Defense Chief Dong Jun's remarks that stressed prudence as the Xi-Trump summit looms, suggesting no imminent military action on Taiwan.
Taiwan’s defense budget dilemma (op-ed by Lyle Goldstein)
In this op-ed, Lyle Goldstein explains how the Taiwan legislature's recent refusal to increase defense spending reveals fissures on the island regarding its approach to China. He argues Americans need to be clear-eyed and realistic about Taiwan, and urges cautious deliberation over bombast and bromides.
Lyle Goldstein offered commentary on concessions the Trump administration might make to an arms package for Taiwan as the administration seeks to strike a trade deal with China.
On Taiwan and Japan, Chinese belligerence backfires (commentary by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein offered commentary for this article about how Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi turned China's hard-line stance on Taiwan into a major political victory for her party.
China is the bright spot in Trump’s foreign policy (op-ed by Lyle Goldstein)
In this op-ed, Lyle Goldstein argued that amid a bleak overall foreign policy picture, Trump’s decisive move back to ‘strategic ambiguity’ on Taiwan is part of a welcome shift toward moderation vis-a-vis China.
Trump vs. his China hawks (commentary by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein offered commentary on the dynamics between China hawks and those advocating a more pragmatic approach within the Trump administration.
‘Playing with fire’: Taiwan defense spending battle rattles China hawks (commentary from Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein offered commentary in this article on the politics of increased defense spending in Taiwan.
Could China’s first hybrid transport drone prove a ‘game changer’ in Taiwan Strait? (commentary by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein commented on the CH YH-1000S, an unmanned vehicle that is considered capable of supplying combat troops, which completed its maiden flight over the weekend.
Spheres of influence for me, not for thee? (contribution from Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein addresses spheres of influence and what happens when American interests collide with China's 'near abroad.'
Why the US and South Korea will not jointly construct nuclear submarines (written by Lyle Goldstein)
In this op-ed in USNI Proceedings, Lyle Goldstein explains why a proposed partnership between the U.S. and South Korea to build nuclear submarines is not moving forward.
Fate of China’s top general more likely to do with power struggle than corruption (commentary from Lyle Goldstein)
In this article in The Guardian on power struggles within the Chinese military, Lyle Goldstein noted that China recently unveiled powerful new weapons and still has the capability to make a move against Taiwan.
Russian and Chinese Threats to Greenland and the New Arctic Sea Routes Are Low (written by Lyle Goldstein)
In this op-ed in USNI Proceedings, Lyle Goldstein argues that while China-Russia cooperation in the maritime domain warrants monitoring, the naval threat to the Arctic and Greenland posed by this quasi-alliance is minimal.
China’s top general under investigation for alleged violations amid corruption crackdown (commentary by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein commented that the corruption charges against Zhang Youxia, long seen as Xi Jinping’s closest military ally, raise questions about the stability of China's military leadership.
China’s retro submarine design speeds up challenge to US undersea dominance (commentary from Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein offered commentary on China’s use of diesel submarines
China encircles Taiwan in massive military display (comments by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein comments on the numerical and qualitative superiority of China's naval forces compared to Taiwan as it engages in extensive war games in the region.
Is China Planning a Russian Land Grab? What to Know (comments by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein comments for Newsweek, "I do believe that one reason the Chinese and Russians are getting along so well is that they have both faced substantial strategic pressure from 'excessive balancing' by the U.S. and its allies."
The Promise and Pitfalls of Japan’s New ‘Iron Lady’ (written by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein writes in Real Clear World that Japan’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi, may intensify U.S.-China tensions, particularly over Taiwan, due to her hawkish stance and push for a stronger Japanese military.
Trump’s Venezuela war threat a gift to China (written by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein writes in Asia Times that a U.S. military intervention in Venezuela would likely backfire by boosting China’s influence in Latin America and deepening great-power tensions.
China’s new aircraft supercarrier challenges U.S. dominance in Pacific (comments by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein told The Washington Post that China’s new 80,000-ton supercarrier marks “a new era” in Beijing’s naval power, further narrowing its capability gap with the United States.
China’s flashy aircraft carriers are no threat to US national security (written by Lyle Goldstein)
In Stars and Stripes, Lyle Goldstein writes that while China’s new Fujian aircraft carrier marks major technological progress, it does not threaten U.S. national security or shift the overall military balance in the Asia-Pacific.
Losing a Taiwan War? (interview with Lyle Goldstein)
On the Security Dilemma podcast, Lyle Goldstein discussed his “Target Taiwan” paper series, which argues that a U.S.-China conflict over Taiwan could be costlier and less winnable for the United States than commonly believed.
Skirting Taiwan will not spare Trump and Xi a future crisis (written by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein wrote in UnHerd that while the Trump-Xi meeting eased trade tensions and benefited U.S. businesses, it missed a crucial chance to address major security risks like Taiwan, North Korea, and nuclear rivalry.
Lyle Goldstein told ABC News that Trump’s comments reflect a new Cold War dynamic, warning that renewed nuclear testing would fuel global arms races, endanger the planet, and ultimately weaken U.S. security.
The U.S. Must Beware of Taiwan’s Reckless Leader (written by Lyle Goldstein)
In TIME, Lyle Goldstein warns that Taiwan’s push toward independence under President William Lai is escalating tensions with China and urges the U.S. to avoid risking war over the island.
Target Taiwan: One China and cross-strait stability (written by Lyle Goldstein)
In an article for Defense Priorities, Lyle Goldstein argues that the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea offers a chance to ease U.S.-China tensions, urging Washington to return to the One China policy and pursue diplomatic restraint to prevent war over Taiwan.
After Xi (co-authored by Tyler Jost)
In a piece co-authored for Foreign Affairs, Tyler Jost warns that China’s looming post–Xi Jinping succession could trigger internal power struggles, destabilize the regime, and reshape the country’s foreign and domestic policies.
Tyler Jost & Daniel Mattingly: Xi Jinping's Successor and the Future of China (interview with Tyler Jost)
Tyler Jost joined the Foreign Affairs Interview podcast to discuss Xi Jinping’s consolidation of power, the risks of political succession in China, and how struggles over Xi’s legacy could shape the country’s future and global influence.
China-Russia partnership is less than meets the eye (written by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein writes in Asia Times that while China and Russia are deepening ties, Beijing has resisted a full military alliance, showing restraint to avoid a new cold war.
Russia is helping prepare China to attack Taiwan, documents suggest (comments by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein told The Washington Post that China views airborne assaults as “absolutely essential” for any invasion of Taiwan and sees Russian expertise as especially valuable after studying D-Day’s reliance on such tactics.
Trump’s Opportunity To Re-Engage Kim Jong Un (written by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein writes in Real Clear Defense that while a Beijing parade with Xi, Putin, and Kim Jong-un raises concern, China’s ties with Russia and North Korea remain complex.
China says electromagnetic catapult launched fighters from new aircraft carrier (comments by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein told Stars and Stripes that China’s electromagnetic launch of stealth fighters marks an impressive naval advance but said the true military value of carriers remains questionable given their vulnerability to submarines, missiles and drones.
China and Russia conduct joint sub patrols — should America worry? (comments by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein told Defense News that China and Russia’s joint submarine patrol was a small-scale show of deterrence consistent with past cooperation, but not yet evidence of a deep military alliance.
India’s thaw in relations with China is nothing to fear (written by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein writes in The Hill that U.S. interests would be better served by supporting a China-India rapprochement rather than viewing it as a zero-sum loss, since cooperation between the two Asian powers could ease tensions, boost trade and stabilize the global order.
Trump’s second-term China policies are confusing ‘hawks’ — and Beijing (comments by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein told the Washington Examiner that Trump’s pragmatic approach to China, including resisting hard-line hawks and praising Xi, reflects the costly reality of U.S.-China interdependence.
Are China’s New Underwater Drones the Future of Naval Warfare? (comments by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein comments for Domino Theory, "We’re talking about, if not a revolution in naval warfare, then something approximating one."
China's catastrophic South China Sea crash shows how dangerous high-risk moves at sea can be (comments by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein told Business Insider that China’s risky confrontations in the South China Sea have increased over the past decade as Beijing flaunts its growing maritime and aerial power.
Washington Shouldn’t Fear Russia and China Seeking Influence in Afghanistan (co-authored by Lyle Goldstein)
Lyle Goldstein and Ella Corbett write in RealClearWorld that Washington should not view Russia’s and China’s growing ties with Afghanistan as a significant threat and should instead focus on humanitarian engagement.
Symposium: Why was Japan the only nuclear holocaust in 80 yrs? (comments by Lyle Goldstein and Stephen Kinzer)
Watson experts Lyle Goldstein and Stephen Kinzer reflect on the legacy of nuclear weapons 80 years after Hiroshima, weighing in on whether deterrence is the true outcome of the atomic age.
Is it possible to “win” a nuclear war? (comments by Lyle Goldstein)
In Vox, Lyle Goldstein says Chinese scholars are now openly discussing limited nuclear war, framing it as a response to similar conversations in the United States.